据外电6月24日消息，行业分析师表示，全球制造业疲软拖累了铝价，但影响可能是短暂的，因为包括中国在内的主要消费国实体市场供应紧张。

中国是全球最大的铝生产国，今年铝产量预计将达到4250万吨，接近其4500万吨的年产能。铝土矿和氧化铝原料供应短缺预计将推动铝价重回上行轨道。

周三LME三个月期铝报价在2520美元/吨左右，自上月触及两年高点2799美元/吨以来已下跌10%。

Uday Patel预测，全球原铝市场供应过剩约50万吨，今年铝价平均为2450美元/吨。

但他补充说，美国和英国禁止俄罗斯向交易所运送金属，以及红海航运危机造成的物流障碍，可能会导致供应收紧。

其他分析师则更为乐观，预计今年将出现供应短缺，这一观点反映在实物市场溢价高于伦敦金属交易所基准价格上。

Since late March, the duty-paid aluminum premium in the U.S. spot market has risen 10% to about $440 a tonne, while the duty-paid aluminum spot premium in Europe has risen 30% to around $340 a tonne over the same period.

“The faster growth in spot aluminum premiums in major consuming regions other than China suggests that the physical market continues to improve,” Macquarie analysts said in a report.

Macquarie expects global aluminum production to be about 72 million tons this year, with a supply-demand gap of 960,000 tons. China is expected to have an aluminum supply-demand gap of 2.26 million tons in 2024. This may mean that China’s aluminum imports will increase further.

Data showed that China’s aluminum imports in May increased by more than 60% year-on-year to 310,000 tons.

"Although there is limited upside in the near term, the aluminum market remains tight and LME aluminum prices should rise again once demand accelerates again," said Michael Widmer, an analyst at Bank of America. Michael Widmer expects the average aluminum price to be $3,000 per ton in 2025, with a supply-demand gap of 2.1 million tons. He predicts that the average aluminum price this year will be $2,500, with a supply-demand gap of 800,000 tons.